About the time the news outlets stopped hiring professional polling firms to conduct the "exit polls" of voters and formed a "pool" to hire only one to poll for all of them in a cost-cutting measure, the accuracy of exit polling began to decline. Some have theorized that the young, minimum-wage poll-takers at the precincts were avoided by Republican voters, leading to poll results predicting more Democratic success. But Democrats have also been under-predicted in some cases, so the problem is probably that the networks aren't willing to pay enough to field poll-takers anyone wants to talk to.
To improve the results, then, we should devise a system of exit polling which doesn't require talking to anyone. We need to be able to identify voters' choices on sight alone. To this end, I am developing a guide for exit polling. Your suggestions are welcome in comments.
Here are the voter identification profiles, and the candidates they support, I've come up with so far:
Woman in Birkenstocks - Hillary Clinton
Woman with pink, orange, or green hair - Dennis Kucinich
Man or Woman carrying Bible - Mike Huckabee
Man carrying what appear to be two Bibles - Mitt Romney
Woman with copper or magenta hair - Barack Obama
Man with American Legion cap - John McCain
Man with holstered pistol - Fred Thompson
Young person with visible piercing other than the ear - Barack Obama
Man with suit and tie, following ambulance - John Edwards
Man with turtleneck sweater, Dockers, blazer, and beard - Hillary Clinton
Man with turtleneck sweater, Dockers, no blazer, no beard - Barack Obama
Woman with turtleneck sweater, Dockers, blazer, no beard - Hillary Clinton
Woman with turtleneck sweater, Dockers, blazer, beard - Hillary Clinton
Woman in pink tee shirt - Dennis Kucinich
Black woman with big hair, fashionably dressed, and a mob of white women following her - Barack Obama (It's Oprah - duh)
White man with tattoo - Barack Obama
White man with swastika tattoo - Ron Paul
White woman in white blouse and midi-skirt - Mike Huckabee
Man in Bill Richardson tee shirt - trick question: like you'd see one of those!
Man in trench coat, unshaven - Ron Paul
Man with union button, wielding 2x4 - John Edwards
Young woman, dark hair, full lips, no bra - Bill Clinton's date
White man, shotgun, white tee shirt, blue jeans - Fred Thompson
Young white man, "Afro" hairdo - Ron Paul
Young white woman, "Afro" hairdo - Hillary Clinton
Young white man, white shirt, thin black tie, on bicycle - Mitt Romney
Middle-aged man, confused look, slack jaw, nods at everything - John Edwards
Young white woman, tee shirt with misspelled words, look of hope - Barack Obama
Man with tinfoil hat - Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich*
• For this case a further nonverbal test is necessary - kits available at nominal cost, card table not included: put two stacks of flyers on card table, one supporting gold standard, the other opposing space-based mind control rays. Those who choose the first flyer support Paul, those who pick the second support Kucinich, and the guy who kicks over the table and spits on both supports Thompson.
Young man, Grateful Dead tee shirt - Ron Paul
Young man, Amy Winehouse tee shirt - Barack Obama
Young man, Neil Diamond tee shirt - Hillary Clinton
Woman, Neil Diamond tee shirt - Mike Huckabee
Older woman, patent leather purse - John McCain
Older woman, Prada purse - Hillary Clinton
Older man, Nine Inch Nails tee shirt - John McCain
Older man, unsteady gait, incoherent with Boston accent - Chris Dodd
