February 09, 2009

Israeli Elections

Are tomorrow!!!

It's pretty clear that Likud will win.  The big question is how big of a mandate will they have.  I have sort of been taking a crash course in Israeli politics.  It is not like the US, in that there are two major parties...in Israel the game is played by forming a coalition of various parties and through the coalition a government can stay in power.  If Likud wins 30 seats or more (out of 120 seats) it stands in a solid coalition and will have a secure enough mandate to keep Bibi in as Prime Minister for a decent time and they will control the ship of state and able to negotiate from a position of strength to the other parties to form a coalition of a minimum of 61 seats of the Kennest.  HOWEVER, the recent polls show Likud getting about 26-28 seats.  This is not good for Likud!  This means potentially Likud will be negotiating from a position of weakness, if Peres even offers Bibi a chance to form a government at all.  It seems the President (Peres) could even bypass Bibi and give the second place (Livni - most likely) a crack at forming a coalition. 

A Livni government would be, imho, as bad of a government as it currently exists in Israel under the Olert-Livni-Barak leadership. 

Most of the Israeli blogs I read have already endorsed Likud or are leaning in that direction.  I think its clear from even most of the polls that Likud will come in first place.  The question is what type of mandate will it have?  Tomorrow we shall find out. 

If you are an Israeli citizen and are able to vote - PLEASE VOTE!  I don't think its a stretch to say that the future of Israel depends on it.

Posted by: Robert Woolwine at 12:22 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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